Red Sox by the numbers: How their win streak, return to relevance became reality
It wasn’t all that long ago that the Red Sox seemed to be in serious trouble. Their rotation was a mess, their injured list was crowded and their losing record was good for last place in the American League East. After the disappointment of last season, this was a real here-we-go-again situation.
But the Red Sox reached Monday’s off day fully relevant again. They’re back in the early playoff picture. Their offense has been terrific, and their rotation has gotten better. Kenley Jansen is back among the game’s elite closers, and Josh Winckowski has emerged as a worthy setup man.
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So, how did this happen? How did the Red Sox go from woe-is-me to whoa, they might be all right this year?
Before Sunday’s loss, the Red Sox had compiled an eight-game winning streak to climb six games over .500 and get back into a wild-card position, but eight games wouldn’t have been enough had they not already been chipping away at their early-season deficit. So, for a by-the-numbers snapshot of the Red Sox turnaround, we’ll start with this number.
23 — Go back over that number of games and you’ll find that, yes, the Red Sox have the most wins in baseball over that stretch (entering Monday’s off day). Their surge really began on April 14, immediately after they were swept by the Rays. They bounced back from the Rays series by sweeping the Angels, and since April 14, they’ve gone 16-7. The Braves, Orioles and Rays each had 15 wins in that span, but no other team had 16. That’s 64 percent of the season in which the Red Sox have been basically as good as anyone, and that stretch included decent competition from the Phillies, Blue Jays, Guardians, Orioles, Brewers, Twins and Angels.
336 — That’s the total number of Red Sox hits this season, and it’s the most in baseball. They have the second-most 10-hit games in the majors behind the Rays. The Red Sox also lead the majors in doubles and rank top-five in runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They rank fourth in OPS and wRC+. And those aren’t numbers for the past two or three weeks. Those are for the season. The offense has been relatively consistent, and it’s been getting better and better.
231 — Masataka Yoshida sports that gaudy wRC+ since April 20, and it’s the best in baseball during that span. Yoshida’s hit .438/.479/.750 with 28 hits and five home runs in 16 games, and his 16-game hitting streak is the longest active streak in the majors and the third-longest of the season. Yoshida’s season OPS has jumped from .560 to .939, meaning he went from a well below-average hitter to an early All-Star candidate. At this point, the only lineup regulars who have an OPS+ significantly below league average are Triston Casas and Kiké Hernández, and the rest of the lineup has done more than enough to make up for those two. (And Casas might be trending in the right direction.)
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) May 8, 2023
.922 — The collective OPS of Red Sox outfielders, making them by far the most productive outfield in the majors (and that’s despite the early season injury to Adam Duvall, who had been the best of the bunch before he got hurt). Not only have Yoshida (.939) and Alex Verdugo (.883) been excellent in the corners, but Jarren Duran (1.018) has re-emerged as a difference maker, while Rob Refsnyder (.830 OPS against lefties) and Raimel Tapia (.832 against righties) have done their jobs off the bench. Baseball-Reference gives the Red Sox the highest outfield WAR in baseball while FanGraphs has them second behind the Rays.
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2 — That’s the number of games Enmanuel Valdez has played (out of 11) without getting on base this season. Sure, he made some sloppy errors early, but he’s been making the routine plays lately, and now both FanGraphs (0.1) and Baseball-Reference (0.2) are giving him a positive WAR for the season. Care to guess how many up-the-middle call-ups gave the Red Sox a positive WAR last season? The answer is one: Jaylin Davis. The other six mid-season, up-the-middle additions — Abraham Almonte, Yu Chang, Jarren Duran, Jonathan Araúz, Jeter Downs and Yolmer Sanchez — all finished with either a 0.0 or negative WAR for the year. When the Red Sox needed depth up the middle, they just couldn’t find it last year. But, given a ton of up-the-middle injuries this season (Duvall, Chang, Christian Arroyo, Adalberto Mondesi and Trevor Story), the Red Sox have been able to turn to Duran and Valdez to capably fill the void and actually produce at above replacement level.
4 — That’s where the Red Sox rank in catcher WAR this season. According to Baseball-Reference, they’re fourth in the majors, and according to FanGraphs they’re fourth in the American League (and seventh in the majors). Either way, it’s been an impressive start at a position that seemed to be at best an offseason gamble and at worst an offseason failure. The Red Sox looked into upgrades behind the plate this winter but decided none would be worth the cost, and so they stuck with Connor Wong and Reese McGuire. Wong has played his way to the top of the depth chart with an elite pop time, strong arm and surprisingly productive bat. McGuire, too, has hit (.797 OPS) while grading pretty well in framing (though, not nearly as well with his arm). The position was a perceived weakness that has, so far, been an absolute strength.
Connor Wong throws out JT Realmuto trying to steal second to end the 2nd. Coming into the day Wong was second in DRS by catchers. The Fielding Bible had him ranked first in all of MLB in Adjusted ER saved, a stat that rates how a carcher handles a pitching staff.
— Tom Caron (blue checkmark redacted) (@TomCaron) May 7, 2023
14 — The Red Sox have pulled off 14 come-from-behind wins. It’s the most in baseball and accounts for two-thirds of their wins this season. They trailed by more than one run in half of those comebacks, including six runs down against the Orioles and four runs down against the Angels. Much of the credit goes to an offense that has quickly developed a reputation for relentless at-bats. Five players have recorded a go-ahead RBI in the eighth inning or later (Verdugo three times, plus Duval, Yoshida, Wong and Chang). But it’s not only the offense that’s been good in the late innings.
0 — Total Red Sox losses when leading after six innings. They’re 16-0 when carrying a lead into the second half of the game, and they’re 18-0 when leading after eight. The Red Sox have the eighth-best bullpen ERA (3.46) in the majors — they ranked 26th last year — and if not for Ryan Brasier (7.56) and Kaleb Ort (7.30) they’d have the best bullpen ERA at 2.40. Before Kutter Crawford got hurt, six of their eight active relievers had a positive ERA+ and seven had a positive Win Probability Added. In the coming weeks, the Red Sox could add to the staff as James Paxton and potentially Joely Rodríguez return from the Injured List.
13 — That’s the number of consecutive games in which a Red Sox starter has lasted at least five innings. Five innings is not a giant accomplishment, but this is still the longest such streak for the Sox since May 2021. It would be 14 consecutive starts if not for Brayan Bello being pulled after 4 2/3 on April 23. In those past 13 games combined, the Red Sox have the fourth-most rotation innings in baseball. Before that, they ranked 20th.
"There's a good chance" James Paxton will start one of the games this weekend at home vs. the Cardinals, Alex Cora said
— Christopher Smith (@SmittyOnMLB) May 7, 2023
11 — That’s the number of games in which an opposing starter has lasted fewer than four innings against the Red Sox. It’s the most in baseball, and Sunday was only the sixth time this season that the Red Sox had an opposing starter finish the sixth inning. Alex Cora, Chaim Bloom and various players have all talked about a team-wide approach of stringing together good at-bats, which has allowed them to get through the starting pitchers and take their chances against relievers.
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5 — The number of divisions in baseball in which the Red Sox’s current 21-15 record would be good for at least second place. But they happen to play in the deepest division in baseball, so they entered Monday — despite their hot streak — stuck in fourth place in the American League East, a half-game behind the Blue Jays, two games behind the Orioles and a whopping 7 1/2 games behind the Rays. They do currently hold the third wild-card spot, but this division is every bit as difficult as imagined.
(Photo of Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen and Rafael Devers: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
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